Russia And The United States: A Love Story For The Future!

By Matthew Clark

On December 29, 2024 I wrote a post for this blog titled,"Trumps America In The Geopolitical World." Even though that article was only written two months ago such has been the rapid pace of the contemporary Trump Presidency that it is time to add to that analysis. True to form the United States President has been under estimated once again, this time by the author. In my defense it can be safely asserted that this is a trait shared by most people around the globe, or so it seems!

In marked contrast to his first term as President Donald Trump has hit the ground running. Successfully placing Robert Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth into high positions within his administration indicates the President has both the intention, and means, to shake up the existing order. So the question which comes to mind is what is the Presidents intention, and what strategy will he employ to meet his goals?

As stated in a previous article Donald Trump has targeted Communist China as America's chief economic and political rival. Economically he will continue to use trade barriers to combat Mainland China. Geopolitically it appears the President might be employing an imaginative bold strategy that is almost mind boggling in it's audacity. Donald Trump will use peace negotiations with Russia not only to end the Special Military Operation in Ukraine yet also as a step to form an alliance with Russia against Communist China!

While this might seeem like a preposterous prediction at first glance, there is some sound reasoning behind it. Russia and China have long been rivals. In 1972 United States President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger used the enmity Russian and China have for each other to form an alliance with China against Soviet Russia. In that era China was the weaker of the two nation's so it made sense for the United States to partner up with her against the Russian Soviets. Now it is Russia which is in the weaker state. A Russian entente with America would end the unnatural amity which presently exists between the Russians and Chinese. Their union is an artificial one, created in reaction to the hostility directed at both nations from the west in general, and the United States in particular.

A Russian American treaty would secure Moscow's western and northern flank. There is no European nation equipped to take on the Russian bear by themselves. In fact it is doubtful the Europeans as a whole could successfully invade the Russians. Economically an U.S. Russo alliance would secure an expanded market for Russian resources and products, while American electronics would have a new jurisdiction in which to expand. With a Russian American geopolitical agreement NATO could well become irrelevant. To keep from angering the Americans the Russians would leave Europe alone. Thus the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would no longer be necessary. This of course would be music to the Trump administrations ears. Foregoing Europe, an area of the world the President observes with increasing contempt, would no doubt give Donald Trump tremendous personnal satisfaction. Furthermore not having to maintain military bases in Europe would substantially free up American defense forces to be deployed elsewhere.

Closer ties with Russia could possibly negate the recent western defeats in Francophone Africa. In such nations as Niger local armed forces have colluded with Russian backed private militaries to oust western supported groups. These groups have included French and American armed soldiers. Friendship with Russsia could mean western interests are welcomed back into the area. In return for this development the Trump administration could allow the Putin government greater influence in the Middle East. With the overthrow of Syrian President Assad Moscow suffered a substantial geopolitical defeat. Having that setback minimized would undoubtedly be appreciated in the halls of the Kremlin.

Perhaps the greatest enticement for a Trump-Putin pact is the effect it could produce on India! India and China share a 3,488 kilometre long border. Many areas of this border are highly contentious. During October of 1962 (at the time of the Cuban Missile Crises) the two nations went to war over a mountainous section of the border. On that occasion the Chinese gave the Indians a pretty good pasting, a fact the Indians have not forgotten. As a result of this episode the Indians grew closer to the Russians as a counterweight to the Chinese. This situation still exists today. Combine Russian/Indian friendly relations with the efforts of the American President to secure an agreement with the South Asian nation (Trumps' first meeting with a foreign leader since January 20th, 2025 was with Indian President Modi) and it is apparent the present U.S. administractions sees the attractions of an Indian/Russian/United States entente. In such a scenario China would face a nightmare two front confrontation. Russia would be on her northern border , India to the South. At sea the formidable United States Navy could sail right up to the Communist states shoreline.

In the economic sphere the impressive manufacturing sectors controlled by India and Russia would balance off the Chinese manufacturing capacity. This situation would also allow the United States government time to rebuild their neglected manufacturing base.

Peaceful relations between Russia and America could also lead to reduced political tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Similar to other Russian governments the Putin administration has kept a positive relationship with the North Korean regime. This is in contrast to the tense atmosphere that often exists between the North Koreans and Beijing. It is possible, perhaps likely that Trump would use his influence with South Korea to reduce tensions with their northern countrymen. He would do this in exchange for President Putin reciprocating by persuading the North Koreans to become more amicable towards their southern brethren!

In the rest of Asia and the Eastern Pacific nations such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam. Phillipines, etc., would be more comfortable confronting mainland China when they had the backing of an American/Russian pact. Russian in turn would welcome not having the militaries (or at least part of their militaries) of these country's directed against her shores.

If President Trump successfully negotiates a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia which keeps the Putin administration satisfied, the chance of progressing to an alliance increases significantly. This could well explain why the negotiations up till the present have been a closed affair held strictly between the United States representatives and Russian political leaders. Much else besides peace between Ukraine and Russia might be under discussion. Under this condition there is no need for interlopers, especially Europeans. Look for the impending peace treaty to be the first step in a ground breaking geopolitical evolution!