by Matthew Clark
As Western governments, and their allies, maneuver toward military conflict with Russia in the Ukraine, it is wise for the citizens of those nations to do a rational appraisal of their government(s) chance of success in such an endeavor.
It has been decades since the Western aligned nations have won a war. The Kosovo War in 1999, fought only through the use of NATO air forces, was the last conflict brought to a victorious conclusion for that organization. True there have been many military battles won, indeed almost all the battles have been successful by the west, and all the wars lost by these same nations. Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, countless African nations, Syria, Indochina in an earlier age, all have witnessed American led Western defeat. In 2008 Russia vanquished the Western backed Georgians, and in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula in a lightning campaign by her armed forces. This latter event occurred after an American administrative state coup replaced a duly elected government in Ukraine, with one more agreeable to the European Union, and the two Upper North American countries.
So why do the NATO nations, and there allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, etc.) believe they are martially superior to their geopolitical adversaries?
During the late 1980's, and early 1990's, citizens in East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Albania, and the 15 former Soviet republics, which included Russia, overthrew their Communist authoritarian overlords. In the case(s) of Romania, and Yugoslavia, a substantial amount of violence was necessary to end Communist rule. In Russia's situation, her people had to face down an attempted military coup, in order to terminate the threat of a new totalitarian regime. A dispassionate review of these events leads to the conclusion, that the people of all the countries referred to, ended the servitude they had been subjected to.
Nevertheless despite this historical fact, political leaders of Western nations will insist that the Western, NATO alliance countries won the cold war. This is inaccurate to say the least. The citizens of the former Communist nations, including Russians, won the cold war. They were the individuals who defeated the totalitarian dictators. Westerners watched the developments on their television sets, in the comfort of their living rooms.
Decades of having a consumer based economy has transformed the noblest, most dynamic culture in human history, into a indulgent, superficial, malignant assault on human decency. Political, and military hierarchy, in North America, and Europe, cannot even make reasonable assessments of their jurisdictions strengths, and liabilities. Conventional militaries in NATO nations are pathetically weak. Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy to name a few, have pitifully small armed forces, which take extraordinary long periods of time to mobilize. Even the United States military, which produces winning battles in it's losing wars, is starting to fray under the strain of never ending conflict. According to senior American military officers, only 30% of 18-34 year old's in the United States have the mental, and physical qualifications, to serve in the armed forces. No people, no army, or navy, or air force.
Going into the Ukraine against a battle hardened, highly motivated, Russian group warriors will be a formidable challenge for the NATO alliance. NATO member states have been losing wars to opponents far weaker than the Russians for decades. Under the circumstances the prospect for success are dubious. Within days Western political leaders might be faced with the choice of either accepting total military defeat, or using nuclear weapons to avoid such a stark development.
In 1991 Westerners, led by their political leadership, reacted to the end of the Cold War by attributing to themselves what was a false victory. Thirty two years later, emboldened by that false victory, and many false victories since that time ( "I declare this mission accomplished"), NATO nations, and their allies, are well on their way to facing either total military defeat, or total nuclear annihilation!
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