By Matthew Clark
With the recent leak of United States Intelligence, and military documents, by (supposedly) an American Air National Guardsman, it has become apparent that the war in Ukraine is going against Western interests. Casualties in the war had previously been reported by Western media as being on a one to one level. For every Ukraine casualty a Russian casualty has also occurred. In fact the documents reveal American intelligence sources believe the ratio of killed, wounded, taken prisoner, favour the Russians by 12 to 1. Ukraine losses in weaponry have been just as heavy as their human losses. It seems that the war in Ukraine will result in a Russian victory! Combine this development with setbacks in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and it would appear the Western Alliance is incapable of military triumph, in the 21st century.
At the same time financial crisis has once again infected the banking system in North America, Europe, and beyond. The monetary insolvency of Silicon Valley Bank, or the Credit Suisse Bank, in Switzerland, reveal a vulnerability in the international economy as serious, or perhaps of even greater menace, than the year 2008!
These developments indicate a very fragile situation amongst the NATO/E.U. alliance. It begs the question: Given the rate of deterioration within the American lead coalition, what state might the Geopolitical world be in a year, or eighteen months, from now?
Analysing the Ukraine conflict first, it is not unrealistic to believe Russia will emerge victorious in the clash. This will mean Moscow controls all of Eastern Ukraine to the Dneiper River, including much of Kiev. They will also capture the southern part of Ukraine, cutting that nation off from the Black Sea. In order to save some face for NATO Poland will occupy that part of Western Ukraine with a Polish majority population. In such a case the Poles will be doing to the Ukrainians something which was done to them in 1775, 1791, 1795 by Russia, Prussia, Austria, and in 1939 with Germany, and the Soviet Union. As well the Hungarians will seize parts of Ukraine on their border which have a sizable ethnic Hungarian populace. Romania will follow suit. These confiscations by Poland, Hungary, and Romania, will give a slight face saving for NATO, by expanding it's physical territory, albeit in a losing war. Ukraine will be reduced to the status of a rump entity, acquiescing to Russia's further demand that the country remain perpetually neutral. NATO nations, somewhat reluctantly, will agree to this Russian demand, as Ukraine's neutrality creates a physical buffer between the two adversaries.
Western diplomatic circles dismiss the idea of Ukraine partition. Not so the Russians. Back on July 12, 2022, Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stated partition would occur. Since the time of that pronouncement, many other government officials in Moscow have expressed similar sentiments. Time might tell them right.
With the occupation of Southern Ukraine to the Moldovan border there is the possibility the Putin government will march their military into Transnistria. Transnistria inhabitants are a Russian speaking majority. Transnistria lawmakers claim independence, while Moldova has declared sovereignty over the area. Russian annexation would settle the issue. NATO is not in a position to stop them.
While the ultimate resolution of the struggle on the Ukrainian Steppes will be unsettling for the NATO/E.U. alliance, a far larger shock to the Brussel headquartered institutions will be the desertion of Turkey from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, to the Eurasian (Russia, Communist China) Entente. Ever since the July 2016 coup attempt engineered by the Obama administration against the Erdogan government in Ankara, relations have been strained between Turkey, and the West. Many Turks in the Erdogan regime, not without cause, believe the E.U., and the Americans, still want their demise. Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has stated, United States operatives are working to replace the present rulers in Turkey.
While the Turks distrust the U.S., they have nothing but contempt for the European Union member nations. (with the possible exception of Hungary, primarily because of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's leadership). Particularly galling to the Turks is the habit of E.U. diplomats uttering soothing words to the Turks, while throwing substantial support to the Greeks, in their various conflicts with Turkey. Erdogan holds a trump card over Europe which all the Union governments tremble at the thought of happening. With one gesture he could unleash another mass migration upon Europe via the Crescent World. Such an action could well tear the Europe apart, which is why they fear it so. With the increasing weakness of America, and the European nations, it will probably be too tempting for Mr. Erdogan to resist leaving NATO, while also inflicting a mass migration crisis on his Western neighbours. This could well transpire over the next year!
In Hungary, the political rule of Viktor Orban, has experienced elevated tension over the Hungarian's government declared neutrality in the Ukraine quarrel. This is a red flag among Washington, and Brussel's, NeoCons. Anticipating some sort of NATO skullduggery against his nation, in reaction to his neutrality position, Mr. Orban has curtailed the country's judiciary. He has also appointed military, and intelligence officials loyal to him. It is apparent the Hungarian political leader distrusts other western governments. That the distrust is reciprocated is also obvious. Could Mr. Orban face an attempted colour revolution, inspired by NATO nation intelligence institutions? It is within the realm of possibility. A reference to 2014 in Ukraine, is an example which might be followed. If such a policy was tried it is certain Mr. Orban would not go quietly into the night!
Recently Communist China brokered a peace deal between Middle East rivals Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Immediately afterwards the kingdom rulers of Saudi Arabia agreed to accept Yuan, Communist China's currency, in exchange for Saudi petroleum. This was a shot across the bow directed at the American dollar. With the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, there is now a way to produce an alliance between the Saudis, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Iran has a deep political relationship, and in some cases military collusion, with Syria, and Iraq. With Saudi participation the four nations have an opportunity to forge a durable union. Saudi Arabia gives the group strong economics, with a respected military. Iraq also has large petroleum reserves, accompanied by a large military. Syria will be able to regain their strength with the termination of civil war, which this union could well aid in such a goal. Iran has a powerful military, and a weakened America means weakened effects for her sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation. An alliance this muscular could mean the four nations make a credible demand that American troops depart Iraq, and Syria. There is also the possibility that Lebanon could fall into the four nation's orbit. This due to the traditional ties between Syria, and Lebanon.
The Monkey wrench in this scenario is Israel. A four, or five country coalition, in that neck of the world, will almost certainly engender a hostile reaction from the Jewish government. Nevertheless Israel's opponents could well believe themselves the greater power, confident in a newfound strength. Thus the chance of a general Middle Eastern War. With diplomatic maneuvers materializing so rapidly in that part of the globe, it is not unrealistic to see the disturbing prospect of a widespread Middle Eastern War in the near term.
Finally there is the multi generational issue of Taiwan. Much attention has been focused by Communist China's military actions around the island(s). Meanwhile Taiwanese lawmakers have frequent meetings with American politicians, including the Speaker(s) of the House of Representatives! Communist Chinese leaders view these acts as extremely provocative!
Recently another, 'outside the box', development has arisen. Taiwan's parliamentary opposition party, the KMT, recently sent it's Deputy Chairman, Andrew Hsia, to China to meet with the Communist governments head of Taiwanese Affairs Office, Song Tao. KMT leaders have been critical of the present Taiwanese administrations hostility to Mainland China's government. The KMT have advocated for stronger ties with Beijing. With growing U.S. weakness, KMT leadership believes it becomes precarious to continue defying the Communist regime. Taiwan has a general election scheduled in 2024. With the KMT leading in the political polling there is a reasonable chance the party could prevail at election time. This might mean Taiwan would be ruled by political rulers who seek unification with Communist China. If this were to happen there is no credible opposition which any jurisdiction could pose to prevent such an union. It would be a groundbreaking shift in the geopolitical world. Notably it would be executed peacefully, and legitimately!
All of these possible situations arise from American, and Western, weakness. Presently Western nations are ruled by weak leaders. As the renowned commentator Jordan Peterson has observed, " And if you think tough men are dangerous, wait until you see what weak men are capable of." In international politics it will be the incapability of weak Western Leaders which will be the great danger!