To See The Shape Of Things To Come Look To The Past!
- matt58clark
- 5 hours ago
- 5 min read
By Matthew Clark
During the 2nd half of the 19th century the world's premier economic and military power, Great Britain, led an impressive crusade to free labour, Industry (particularly manufacturing), finance, and capital, from government fetters. Albion's mighty Royal Navy, the globes dominant military institution, conducted campaigns on the high seas against the slave trade, piracy, and state opportunism. As a result safety and security on the world's waters reached a level never previously enjoyed by any peoples. Meanwhile diplomatic efforts were made to open up international markets. Outdated policies such as corn laws were abandoned, travelling without a passport was a normal affair, while Visa's necessary to work in a foreign land were a rarity.
As a result international trade expanded to levels that dwarfed past historical ages. One fact gives truth to the increasing prosperity experienced during the 1800's. It was the only century (so Far) where over an entire 100 years, prices on items (cost) DECREASED, while wages for all classes INCREASED! In United States history the late 19th century is referred to as the "Gilded Age."
Nevertheless as the 1800's wore on class tension also increased. While an increase in wealth was general, some individuals and families, such as the Astors (in both Britain and the United States), the Vanderbilts, the Rothchilds, DuPonts, etc., prospered much more profoundly than their fellow citizens. Unrest was created by this disparity. On occasion this turmoil was turned against individuals who had done nothing to create these set of events. From the late 1850's to the early 1880's a political cause was waged in the United States, and other western ruled lands, against Chinese immigrants. These immigrants were seen, quite correctly, yet not due to any fault of their own, as suppressing the wages of lower class workers in the United States, as well as other nations. This movement was promoted by orator and agitator Denis Kearney, leader of the anti-capitalist Workingmen Party. Kearney was successful in influencing Congress to pass the Chinese Exclusion Act (eliminating Chinese immigration to the U.S.) in 1882. Similar actions were executed in Canada and the other 'White Dominions' of the British Empire. Meanwhile large segments of lower class labourers started to organize into unions, including trade unions, in the workplace. These organizations also became involved in political causes (such as universal male sufferage).
At some point during this epoch, it is difficult to ascertain the exact moment, the movement toward free trade and labour mobility, went into retreat. An example as of this is what transpired in Canada during the year 1879. Prime Minister John A. MacDonald ruling political party instituted a policy entitled "The National Dream." MacDonald's "National Dream," was comprised on two policies. Building a transcontinental railway, while also instituting widespread tariffs to promote manufacturing industry. These tariffs would survive in some form or another until 1984.
Ironically disparity in income continued to grow internationally during this period of reaction. Those who advocated for economic freedom were referred to as Internationalists. Those who opposed economic liberty while campaigning for restrictions were addressed as 'Populists.' Among the general public economic freedom proponents came to be seen as representing the interests of the extremely wealthy. "Populists" were personnel who looked out for the interests of the common man.
As availability to the worlds markets dwindled amongst nations the acquisition of natural resources became paramount. A sympton of this development was the pursuit among the European dynasties for larger empires. Yet many intelligent social analysts and commentators failed to observe this situation. In early 1914 Nobel Prize winner, prominent journalist and economist Norman Angell, stated, "the economic cost of war is so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war, the consequence of which would be disasterous. For that reason a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long."
Less than six months later, in an effort to control the globes resources, the major European governments started the great slaughter known as "The First World War!" It would last for four agonizing years!
After WWI free trade collapsed. It's final demise occurred during the Great Depression (1929 into the 1930's and beyond), as nation after nation returned to protective economics. Byproducts of this trend was the expansion of totalitarian governments, such as Fascism (Germany, Japan,Italy, Spain, Portugal, Hungary), and communism (Soviet Union/Russian Empire). Above all there was an enlargement of militarism, led by the nations just mentioned.
This increase in military size was an important factor in the commencement, and waging, of a Second World War. After World War II western nations, lead by the United States and to a lesser extent United Kingdom, enacted the Bretton Woods economic system. Bretton Woods was a return to Great Britains 19th century crusade for a global free economy. Trade barriers were to be eliminated.
Over time free trade agreements and institutions took hold. The European Union and NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) are two important examples of this statement. There was at least two important differences between Bretton Woods and the 1800's trade deals. Contracts on trade between governments in the 19th century were true, or very close to being true, free trade deals. The 1854-1866 Reciprocity Treaty between Canada and America is a case in point. Meanwhile the pacts on trade between national governments in the current 21 st cenury, as well as the previous late 20th century, are managed trade deals. They are far less market driven. International businesses are protected by all signatories of trade deals. Many high tech companies are another example of this state of affairs. Secondly the pursuit of labour mobility was never attempted in any meaningful way!
This type of internationalism, currently entitled as globalization, produced a hallowing out of industries, primarily in the manufacturing sector, within western nations. As materialized in the latter half of the 19th century there has been a reaction against this development. Social cohesion is disintegrating. A cruseade against immigration is occurring on a massive scale throughout the globe. It is an understandable reaction, and probably necessary. Yet the anger expressed against immigrants is quite disconcerting. It is difficult to see this situation ending well. Militarization is once again expanding, with contempory western nation's governments leading the charge. Globalization is in decline. Tariffs, increased tariffs, are a fact of life. With economic liberty receding acquiring natural resources is once again of the utmost importance. Arguably conflicts in Russia, Ukraine, Venezuala, the Middle East, are all about resource possession.
Taking these tendancies into consideration the question arises; after passing through a period of Internationalism (Globalism), followed by a period of populism, as transpired in the early 1900's, will the world community once again have World War? Since the future is an undiscovered country no-one knows the answer to that question. Nevertheless it is a definite possibility. If this does not give the reader angst than one other fact should be mentioned. Unlike 1914 when even the most powerful national governments, and their militaries, failed to possess weapons of mass destruction, currently at least eight governments of national jurisdictions, perhaps more, control nuclear weapons!
References:
The Chinese Exclusion Act, Part 1-The History, Bailey DeSimone, Library of Congress Blogs, May 13, 2022
The Nobel Prize
Sir Norman Angell
Biographical
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