A Geopolitical Plan Which Will Not Succeed!

By Matthew Clark

Let me begin this post with the assertion that Israel's national government is a highly problematic institution. This statement is not simply based on the Israeli governments geopolitical behaviour, yet also because of their (mis) treatment of Christians, a topic covered in previous articles contained in this blog. Furthermore it can be argued that the Israeli government has far to much influence on the political policies of the United States federal government. This is a bone of contention amongst many American political observers, from the likes of academic John Mearsheimer to journalist Tucker Carlson.

Nevertheless there is one popular narrative in the geopolitical sector about Israeli undue influence on American foreign policy which is, it can be argued, inaccurate. The contention that the present (February-March 2026) hostilities between Iran on one side, and the United States and Israel on the other side, is a case of Israel political leaders leading the United States government forces by the nose. In fact the reason for the (U.S.)Trump administration behaviour in the Middle East is rooted deeply in traditional major power politics. It is a policy which Niccolo Machiavelli would readily recognize, albeit after a course on the importance of petroleum to the economy(s) of all contemporary nations.

Before explaining what the present United States federal government geopolitical policy regarding Iran hopes to achieve, it is necessary to draw attention to recent American military actions in Nigeria, and Venezuala. During the most recent Christmas season (2025) the United States Air Force bombed non government forces in Nigeria. This action was perceived as benefitting the Nigerian government. It also increased American military presence in Nigeria. Meanwhile in Venezuala, after a short naval blockade of that nation by the United States Navy, special military forces of the United States kidnapped the Venezualan President, while air and naval units of the U.S. bombed key targets within Venezuala. As a result Venezuala has become a vassel state of the U.S. Now the United States navy, and air force, is assisting Israeli military forces in bombarding the country of Iran, in an attempt to gain political hegemony over that Persian nation. So the question arises, what do the Nigerians, Venezualans, and Iranians, have in common that would cause such American ire?

A more than likely answer is that all three nations export substantial amounts of fossil fuels to mainland China? In 2025 642,000 bpd (Barrels Per Day) of crude and fuel oil were exported from Venezuala to Communist China. In 2024 (2025 figures not yet available) Nigerians exported roughly $1.4 billion (U.S.) in Liquid Natural Gas, Petroleum Gas, and Petroleum Crude to China. In 2025 Iranians shipped 1460 (thousand bpd)of fossil fuels to China.

Taking these figures under consideration it appears obvious that if forces of the United States could acquire proxy control of the previously mentioned three nations energy sector, then America could possess major economic leverage over the Chinese. With this leverage U.S. governmental representatives would no doubt attempt to negotiate a trade agreement which would so disadvantage the Chinese that their ability to become a major international power on par with the Americans would be arrested. Interestingly President Trump on March 1st, 2026 announced he anticipated a four week campaign would be necessary before Iran would be subjugated. At present a meeting between President Trump, and Premier Xi of China, is scheduled for March 31-April 2, 2025!

Will Donald Trumps machinations succeed? Perhaps, yet it appears unlikely. First and foremost military victory over Iranian military forces is by no means assured. Iranian political leaders seem determined to persevere through the United states and Israeli military onslaught! Neither the U.S. or Israeli's have boots on the ground (army units) in or in close proximity to Iran. Calls by Western political leaders urging the Iranian people to overthrow their government have gone, up until the present, unheeded. Some Western military dissidents have also questioned whether United States or Israeli armed forces units have enough munitions to achieve their governments goals!

Nevertheless let us presume the Israeli's and Americans succeed in Iran. Will the Trump administration then have Mainland China over an economic barrel? (excuse the pun)

Doubtful!

On the Middle Kingdom's northern border stands Russia, the largest geographical nation on earth, with the 2nd largest Petroleum reserves on earth. Russia's four major purchaser's of her energy products are China, India, the E.U. (still, despite the Ukraine war), and Brazil, in that order. It is not beyond Russian ability to both ramp up energy production, while also removing a hostile Europes share of energy, and allocating that share to China. There is no way the United States government, or any national government for that matter, could stop this development if the Russians so choose to impliment it. American checkmated!

At present war as an instrument of policy, is becoming increasingly ineffective for the United States, or any other Western Alliance state. A prolonged period of peace, where debts are consolidated, and paid off, accompanied by an increase in the standard of living of average citizens, is required to arrest the decline of the Western world. A failure to pursue peace at the geopolitical level will not only result in decline, but perhaps collapse as well. Armed conflict in Iran is therefore, counter productive.