Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's Clever Play

By Matthew Clark

"Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

This autumn (2026) the citizens of Alberta will vote on this question in a provincial wide referendum. Initially it appeared that Albertans were going to be able to vote directly on whether to remain politically within Canada.

An Albertan citizens group successfully collected over 700,000 signatures from Albertan residents. demanding the right to vote on Albertan nationhood. This number met the requirement that the Albertan government had put into law in order for a referendum on Albertan political separation from Canada to occur. That exercise in democracy was thwarted by an egregious campaign conducted by First Nation (North American Indians) political leadership insisting Indians should have a veto over Albertans right to self determination (10% of the population therefore holds the other 90% in political bondage). When the Indians campaign was on the brink of failure a local judge intervened to make a nonsensical ruling that the referendum could not commence because Indians had not been consulted on the proposed referendum. Nowhere in Canada's Clarity Act, which is the law setting the benchmarks for a province within the nation to separate from federal Canada, does it require Indians be given special status as a stakeholder in the issue of political separation from Canada. Clearly the judge became a force unto himself, making up law to suite his own personnel political opinion.

Faced with this jurist assault on the principle of consent of the governed, Albertan Premier Danielle Smith adroitly intervened in the process by deciding to hold a provincial vote on whether a referendum on Albertan nationhood should be held.

With this move Ms. Smith has outmanouvred both the judge and the Indian political leadership, as well as anyone else who opposes a vote on the subject.

No matter which way the vote goes she has upheld the principle of 'consent of the governed.' So even a no vote leaves her with a victory. Nevertheless if Albertans do vote to hold a referendum on political separation from Canada, then both the judge, and Indian chiefs, are in a position where they shall either give in to their opponents or, if they maintain their opposition to the democratic will, be exposed as self important tinpot would be dictators. At that point the danger for Albertan Indians will be that Albertans decide to endorse nationhood for their jurisdiction. Events from there could evolve, or devolve, in such a way that the Indians lose all treaty rights in the new independent nation.

A second dynamic of a decision for the yes side is the leverage it will give Ms. Smith with the rest of Canada's provincial governments, as well as in relation to the Federal Canadian government. Other provincial leaders, most of whom feast at Albertans expense through the equalization fund, face the peril of finding their gravy train removed. Therefore they will be more than likely to accomodate many of Ms. Smith's constitutional demands.

In the case of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his federal government, there could well be desperation at the thought of a referendum on Albertan separation. In 2016 as Governor of the Bank of England Mr. Carney, a remainer, was a participant on Britain's national poll on whether to remain, or exit, the European Union. In that historic June/2016 exercise of the national franchise the underdog Brexit (exit) side triumphed! Mr. Carney performed very poorly during that application in democracy. Keeping that experience in mind Mr. Carney will more than likely try to avoid any type of national unity poll. Premier Smith would almost certainly take advantage of the Prime Minister's desire to be politically accomodating to her "requests."

Opponents of Ms. Smith should learn a lesson from these latest developments regarding the populace's disdain for the political and economic culture within Canada. By opposing 'consent of the governed' Ms. Smith's opponents have strengthened the hand of the provincial premier. How far she will take this oppurtunity provided by her adversaries is anyone's guess!